Policy and Design Publications
Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Sources: Section 111(d) and State Equivalency
March 2012
On December 9, 2011, the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions convened a broad range of stakeholders to explore the legal and policy issues presented by the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under 111(d) (existing source performance standards) of the Clean Air Act. The workshop focused primarily on the options for states to demonstrate that existing GHG policies are equivalent to the 111(d) requirements. The Nicholas Institute distributed this document to workshop participants prior to the event to provide a framework for the issues that would be discussed. Nothing in this document should be interpreted as expressing the Institute’s opinion of the path the EPA should take on any given issue.
Determining the Least-Cost Investment for an Existing Coal Plant to Comply with EPA Regulations under Uncertainty
February 2012 - by David Hoppock, Dalia Patino Echeverri, and Etan Gumerman
Low natural gas prices and forthcoming Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations for coal plant emissions, coal wastes, and thermal-generation cooling systems are forcing utilities and utility regulators to decide whether to retrofit or to retire and replace existing coal plants. To help utility commissions and other interested parties make informed investment decisions and quantify cost risk for ratepayers, researchers at Duke University will make the Risk Based Decision Model available to the public. The model can be employed to estimate the impact of abrupt changes, or “shocks,” and the cost of making “bad” investments that are later abandoned. To demonstrate the model, this paper models the least-cost investment decision for Louisville Gas and Electric’s Mill Creek coal-fired power plant to meet the forthcoming EPA regulations under uncertainty using publicly available data.
The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
January 2012
Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Agricultural Land Management in the United States: A Synthesis of the Literature (Third Edition)
January 2012 - by Alison J. Eagle, Lydia P. Olander, Lucy R. Henry, Karen Haugen-Kozyra, Neville Millar, and G. Philip Robertson
The Net Global Effects of Alternative U.S. Biofuel Mandates: Fossil Fuel Displacement, Indirect Land Use Change, and the Role of Agricultural Productivity Growth
January 2012 - by Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlík, Hugo Valin, Justin S. Baker, Brian C. Murray, Siyi Feng, Michael Obersteiner, Bruce A. McCarl, Steven K. Rose, and Uwe A. Schneider
One of the declared objectives of U.S. biofuel policy is the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, but many studies have questioned whether such a reduction would actually occur and, if so, how large it would be. This report describes the global market, land use, GHG emissions, and nitrogen use impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs, which differ in terms of mandate magnitude and feedstock composition, over the 2010–2030 period.
Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture
December 2011 - by Eva 'Lini' Wollenberg, Marja-Liisa Tapio-Bistrom, Maryanne Grieg-Gran, Alison Nihart
A new book features two chapters on reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions penned by researchers at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions—Brian Murray and Lydia Olander. The 456-page book reviews the state of agricultural climate mitigation globally and focuses on the design and implementation of activities to reduce emissions and increase carbon storage.
Profiling Local Climate Change Governance in the Southeastern United States
December 2011 - by Amy Morsch
While other regions have taken a more proactive approach, state and federal government officials and privately owned utilities have largely dismissed the idea of climate and energy policies in the southeastern United States. In this environment, many cities have developed climate and sustainability programs independent of state action. In the summer of 2011, the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions surveyed Southeastern cities with populations greater than 100,000 on their sustainability, climate, and energy policies and practices. This report presents the results of that survey, which reflect how local governments in the region are articulating goals, exercising influence and authority, and planning and implementing policy. The research revisits many of the topics analyzed in a similar 2010 Nicholas Institute report, and it provides a glimpse at the direction of local governments in the Southeast.
Distribution of Emissions Permits to the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector under Alternative Output-Based Allocation Schemes
December 2011 - by Joshua Schneck and Gale Boyd
Under a cap-and-trade climate policy, emissions allowances—tradable rights to emit a fixed amount of greenhouse gases—become scarce and valuable resources that change the economic incentives to implement more energy-efficient processes and energy management practices, and to select fuels with lower carbon content. A key question accompanying the design of any such policy is how to allocate these allowances. This paper examines how key design elements and industry characteristics affect the distribution of allowances to U.S. pulp and paper firms under three variations of a proposed output-based allocation program—the American Power Act’s emissions allowance rebate program.
Myths and Facts About Electricity in the U.S. South
December 2011
This paper identifies six myths about clean electricity in the southern United States. These myths are either propagated by the public at-large, shared within the environmental advocacy culture, or spread imperceptibly between policy makers. Using a widely accepted energy-economic modeling tool, the paper exposes these myths as half-truths and the kind of conventional wisdom that constrains productive debate. In doing so, it identifies new starting points for energy policy development.
Considering Shale Gas Extraction in North Carolina: Lessons from Other States
November 2011 - by Sarah Plikunas, Brooks Rainey Pearson, Jonas Monast, Avner Vengosh and Rob Jackson
Because North Carolina has no active oil and gas production and no existing regulatory framework for this industry, it has a unique opportunity to build a program from the ground up. This paper looks at the environmental and health concerns surrounding hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas trapped below the ground, and shares regulatory approaches other states are taking to reduce these risks. Further, it focuses on several measures North Carolina lawmakers should understand when considering whether, and under what conditions, to allow shale gas extraction in the state.
Myths and Facts About Electricity in the U.S. South
September 2011 - by Marilyn A. Brown, Etan Gumerman, Xiaojing Sun, Gyungwon Kim, Kenneth Sercy
This paper identifies six myths about clean electricity in the southern United States. These myths are either propagated by the public at-large, shared within the environmental advocacy culture, or spread imperceptibly between policy makers. Using a widely accepted energy-economic modeling tool, the paper exposes these myths as half-truths and the kind of conventional wisdom that constrains productive debate. In doing so, it identifies new starting points for energy policy development.
Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Transportation Reauthorization and Energy Policy
August 2011 - by Craig Raborn
The United States transportation sector not only accounts for a significant portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but it is also the fastest-growing source of these emissions. In fact, emissions from surface transportation activity—travel on roads and by rail—account for about 80% of the country’s total transportation GHG emissions. This Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions paper summarizes the potential for GHG reductions from policies influencing the transportation sector. It also presents and discusses the expected costs for individual strategies and shows how combined policies might distribute emissions reductions and costs between individual policies.
Seeding the Market: Auctioned Put Options for Certified Emission Reductions
August 2011 - by William A. Pizer
There are a number of reasons for considering some kind of market-based, pay-for-performance mechanism to mitigate developing country greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This policy brief lays out arguments for the auctioned put option as a pay-for-performance mechanism that would allow governments or philanthropic organizations to support and catalyze markets for GHG reductions. The existing offset market, with its detailed methodologies for calculating emission reductions, offers tools that could be borrowed by such a mechanism. Auctioned put options could target a subset of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects—segregated by type of project or country of origin—or an entirely different set of activities, such as REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation plus conservation, sustainable forest management, and enhancement of carbon stocks). The key element is that there must be standardized rules (or the promise of rules) detailing how emission reductions get counted and certified.
The United States, China, and the Competition for Clean Energy
July 2011 - by Brian Murray, Jonas Monast, Chi-Jen Yang, and Justine Chow
The United States is now grappling with the challenge of meeting its long-term energy needs in a secure, affordable, reliable, safe, and environmentally sustainable way. In United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in December 2010, the United States and other countries committed to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2020 and fund mitigation and adaptation activities in developing countries. China, now the world’s largest emitter, has agreed to cut its GHG emissions significantly, reflecting its recent commitment to scientifically balanced development and the development and deployment of renewable and other clean energy sources. Since mid-decade, China has gone from being a relatively small player in clean energy to the world’s largest investor. This policy brief poses a number of questions aimed at identifying how best the U.S. should advance its interests with regard to the development and deployment of clean energy technologies, both in absolute terms and relative to China and other major economies.
Examination of the Carbon Fee Alternative for the State of California
June 2011 - by Brian C. Murray, Jan V. Mazurek, and Timothy H. Profeta
The California Air Resources Board (ARB), as a result of a recent court decision, is required to provide information about a carbon fee as one of several alternatives to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Other alternatives include direct regulation of facilities, cap and trade, and a mix of sectoral strategies. This paper examines the carbon fee as an option for controlling greenhouse gases and compares it to other regulatory alternatives, such as the cap-and-trade approach ARB initially decided to take.
Transportation and Climate Policy Summary: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Resulting from Different Infrastructure Spending Levels
June 2011 - by Craig Raborn
One key element of federal surface transportation legislation is the overall spending level, which determines the level of investment in transportation-related infrastructure. Yet the effect of spending on transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is not well understood. This policy brief presents analysis of spending scenarios matched approximately to current reauthorization proposals. Transportation infrastructure spending levels do not significantly alter transportation GHG emissions, meaning that infrastructure spending policy by itself is an ineffective tool for reducing GHG emissions, and that setting the overall spending level to meet policy goals unrelated to climate will not wipe out climate-related outcomes. Other transportation-sector policy tools have greater potential for achieving significant GHG emissions reductions.
Research and Policy Recommendations for Hydraulic Fracturing and Shale‐Gas Extraction
May 2011 - by Robert B. Jackson, Brooks Rainey Pearson, Stephen G. Osborn, Nathaniel R. Warner, Avner Vengosh
This policy brief builds on a Duke study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences linking hydraulic fracturing or "fracking" to high levels of methane in well water. The brief, co-authored by a Nicholas Institute researcher, outlines recommendations for monitoring and addressing potential environmental and human health risks related to fracking.
Carbon Offsets and Environmental Impacts: NEPA, the Endangered Species Act, and Federal Climate Policy
April 2011
Carbon offsets have been an integral part of recent climate policy proposals, but there are questions about how a carbon offsets program would interact with existing environmental laws. Laws such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Endangered Species Act (ESA) require federal agencies to assess the potential impacts their actions would have on the environment. Such assessments can be lengthy and time consuming, and they could delay the establishment of an offsets program or the approval of individual projects. This paper examines how the type of offsets program proposed in recent climate legislation would be affected by the requirements of NEPA and the ESA. The authors suggest a range of policy options that would allow an offsets program to address any potential conflicts with these laws, while still meeting their requirements.
Using Biogeochemical Process Models to Quantify Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Agricultural Management Projects
March 2011 - by Lydia P. Olander and Karen Haugen-Kozyra, with contributions from Stephen Del Grosso, César Izaurralde, Daniella Malin, Keith Paustian, and William Salas
This paper provides an overview of how biogeochemical process models can be used to quantify greenhouse gases (GHG) in agricultural systems for use in developing GHG mitigation programs or protocols. Federal and state agencies, voluntary carbon market registries, and companies are all looking for ways to assess mitigation opportunities in agriculture and to track outcomes of various management options.
Primer on GHG Regulation under the Clean Air Act: NSPS Rulemaking Process
March 2011 - by Brooks Rainey Pearson and Jonas Monast
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